Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
Not much cookin’ in the short term...
But there are signs that the July will open up more active vs. recent weeks:
(1) An active tropical wave is chugging west/northwest across the Caribbean. Proximity to land & the wave’s fast movement + moderate to strong shear should limit organization until possibly the weekend over the Western Caribbean or SW Gulf though again there will be interaction with the Mexico & possibly Central America before reaching the Bay of Campeche. No impacts to Jacksonville or any of Florida.
(2) A strong tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa. Initially the air is dry & wind shear is pretty strong. But - as I point out often - the presence of Saharan dust & dry air does not necessarily simply equate to no tropical development. As is the case it would seem with this wave, the wave may have a chance to organize once it’s out of the “dust cloud” which looks to be about the middle of next week. The GFS & European have trended more similar to a low latitude track which is where the GFS has been with the wave near or over the Caribbean between July 3rd & the 8th.
(3) Another tropical wave is coming off the coast of Africa with at least some chance for development while moving west or W/NW across the Atlantic.
“Buresh Bottom Line”: still early on either of these tropical waves. The Caribbean wave will likely bring some heavy rain & gusty winds to Central America & Mexico. Time will tell as to whether or not the wave can survive the land interaction & then try to organize over the Bay of Campeche. The 2nd wave which has a *chance* to impact the Caribbean next week. Stay up to date.....
The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is unseasonably high for this time of year:
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
June tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November (7 hurricanes so far, 19 tropical storms):
Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2024 names..... “Beryl” is the first name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East & Central Pacific:
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity:
Cox Media Group