Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.
Impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. from “Bret” or “Cindy”: None.
The 3rd named storm of the Atlantic season does not - on average - occur until Aug. 3. According to Dr. Phil Klotzbach/CSU: “Cindy is the 2nd June tropical cyclone to form in tropical Atlantic (south of 23.5N, east of 60W) this month. No other June on record has had >1 storm formation in tropical Atlantic.” It’s also the first time since 1968 that two named storms have occurred at anytime in the month of June.
(1) Bret: The strong & well organized tropical wave - ‘92-L’ was upgraded to tropical depression #3 over the Eastern Atlantic Mon. morning then to tropical storm Bret Mon. afternoon & slowly strengthened to near hurricane strength early Thu. This (a named storm developing so far to the east in the deep tropical Atlantic) is an unusual development for so early in the season. In fact, it’s the 7th earliest occurrence for the 3rd named Atlantic storm & is the farthest east in the tropical Atlantic for a storm to be named so early in the season. Bret was shredded by strong mid & upper level shear once into the Caribbean & was declared on “open tropical wave” late Sat. by NHC. No regeneration is expected.
Bret took advantage of: (1) an early season uptick in tropical waves that have already been marching westward... (2) above avg. & warm ocean temps. over most of the lower Atlantic Basin (has cooled to the north)... & (3) the El Nino is in its infancy & is still strengthening (which may help to slow the season near its climatological peak in Sept./early Oct.).
(2) The second tropical wave - ‘93-L’ behind - to the east of - Bret was upgraded early Thu. to tropical depression #4 & tropical storm “Cindy” Thu. night & is moving northwest but degenerated into an open trough/tropical wave late Sun. The remnants of Cindy will turn more sharply to the north the next few days thanks to a trough of low pressure (same trough that wakened Bret) over the SW Atlantic staying far to the east/northeast of the Lesser Antilles AND Puerto Rico & far to the east of Florida. Strong wind shear will continue to take its toll, but regeneration is quite possible mid to late week. The European model brings Cindy back late in the week while moving northward over the NW Atlantic. The GFS model re-intensifies Cindy sooner - by mid-week - over the Western Atlantic but still well east of the U.S. If the wave can recover from the strong shear, it’s possible Cindy could have some impacts on Bermuda Thu. then on Nova Scotia &/or Newfoundland by the weekend.
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
June tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for June:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2023 names..... “Don” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors will expand rather dramatically by Aug./Sept./Oct.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
The East Pacific (may see development by the weekend south of Mexico):
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity: