Talking the Tropics With Mike: Powerful Beryl into the Caribbean

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) A Hurricane WATCH: Jamaica... A Tropical Storm WARNING: Grenada ... St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands ... St. Lucia ... Martinique ... South coast of Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque westward to the border with Haiti ... South coast of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Anse d’Hainault

The strong tropical wave - ‘95-L’ - that moved off the coast of Africa early last week has been rolling west/W/NW & was upgraded to tropical depression #2 Friday afternoon ... tropical storm Beryl Friday evening... & the first hurricane of the Atlantic season Sat. afternoon becoming a ‘major’ Cat. 3 early Sunday - the first ‘major’ hurricane on record in the month of June east of the Lesser Antilles & the farthest east that a hurricane of any strength has formed in the tropical Atlantic in June beating the old record set in 1933. Beryl became a Cat. 4 by midday Sunday making the tropical cyclone the strongest known/observed Atlantic hurricane on record (since 1851). And is the 3rd earliest Atlantic major (Cat. 3+) hurricane on record, behind Alma (6/8/1966) and Audrey (6/27/1957). Powerful Beryl with a tight concentric eye went through a classic eyewall replacement cycle late Sunday/Sunday night (original eye weakens as a new broad eye forms around it). Once the cycle was completed by sunrise Monday, Beryl has been restrengthening with the central pressure continuing to drop through the day into Monday evening. A brief Cat. 5 intensity is possible before gradual weakening as mid & upper level shear increases.

The track for Beryl is straight forward over the next several days thanks to a rock solid upper level ridge of high pressure to the north. This brings the pretty fast moving major hurricane through the Central & especially Southern Lesser Antilles Monday. The core of the hurricane stayed south of Barbados, but Beryl was a very tough hit on Grenada & Saint Vincent and The Grenadines. Conditions will improve through Tuesday throughout the Windward Islands.

No impact to Jacksonville or Florida. Heads up Jamaica, Cayman Islands & perhaps Cancun mid to late week a bit either way of July 4th. The forecast models remain in good agreement on a steady track west/northwest through the Caribbean near Jamaica Wednesday to near the Yucatan Peninsula by Friday then over the Bay of Campeche Saturday - a popular spot so far this season. Possible land interaction + an increase in westerly mid & upper level shear later in the week may take Beryl down a few “notches”, but the storm may still be a hurricane all the way up to/near the Yucatan. The Yucatan looks to be a fork in the road so to speak as forecast models were trending more northwest, even north/northwest in 5-7 days, so we cannot totally discount an impact on Texas & possibly other parts of the far Western Gulf coast of the U.S. However, more recent model trends are more west/northwest across the Yucatan followed by a potential more northward turn once over the Bay of Campeche. The increasing shear + land interaction make the long term intensity forecast especially problematic. The overall trend is for the GFS model to be more north... the European model more south (more westerly long term forward motion)... and the Canadian model in-between (long range landfall over South Texas).

For now... an upper level high remains strong & generally in control from the Southern U.S. eastward across much of the Atlantic. This feature will be the main steering current maintaining the steady west/northwest track. It’s when & if the ridge weakens some - or contracts - that would allow “Beryl” to gain more latitude. In general, long range forecast models have trended northward some by the weekend but still well south of the U.S. until perhaps over the weekend when Beryl could turn a little more N/NW. Continue to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery’s from CIMSS shows the rapid strengthening of Beryl over the weekend:

An aside: “Beryl” was an early season storm back in 2012 coming ashore in Duval Co. & metro Jacksonville, Florida just below hurricane strength during the weekend of Memorial Day.

(2) Tropical wave - ‘94-L’ was upgraded to tropical depression #3 Sunday afternoon then to tropical storm “Chris” Sunday night followed by a landfall on the Central Mexico coast shortly thereafter. The avg. date for the third named Atlantic storm is Aug. 3rd. Chris will quickly dissipate as the storm moves inland. No impacts to Jacksonville or any of Florida.

(3) Another tropical wave - ‘96-L’ - has just come off the coast of Africa with initially a decent chance for development while moving west across the Atlantic over the upcoming week. This wave is following in the footsteps of Beryl for now but could take a track that’s at least a little more north of Beryl in the longer range. It would *appear* conditions become less favorable the more west this wave gets, & it’s possible this wave (or possible t.d./t.s.) will struggle after especially the 4th of July. In any case... stay up to date on this system.

“Buresh Bottom Line”: * Beryl impacts the Caribbean this week... Monday for the Central & Southern Lesser Antilles as a powerful hurricane... Jamaica & the Cayman Islands mid-week followed by the Yucatan Peninsula Thu. night/Fri. & then *possibly* a turn more northwest, maybe N/NW from there.

* Chris has dissipated while moving inland for Mexico.

* The third wave - ‘96-L’ - may end up farther north than its two predecessors & will certainly need to be carefully monitored though environmental conditions appear to become marginal for significant development in the longer range.

Stay up to date on the latest forecasts....

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is unseasonably high for this time of year:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

July tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for July (1 hurricane so far, 3 tropical storms):

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Debby” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:

East & Central Pacific:

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity:

Cox Media Group