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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.

Lots of chatter the past few days about a “cloud of heavy African dust” moving west toward then across Fl. The imagery below shows the “big dust cloud” (much like the big field of sargassum that’s shrunk, I guess) is really pretty puny & shrinking as it moves westward. Given the position of a ridge of high pressure across S. Fl., what dust is left will get directed pretty far to the west only grazing S. Fl. & not impacting NE Fl./SE Ga. Why there was so much coverage of this cloud is beyond me as meteorologists should have been able to see the shrinking dust cloud not to mention it’s not very significant compared to what we’ve seen in the past. I suspect some forecasters were looking at the modeling for particulates (smoke &/or dust)... saw an increased amount over Fl. but then failed to do their own research, observing & forecasting to determine the models were not accurate &, therefore, one might want to rethink the model forecast. It’s a typical problem in today’s meteorology. And, of course, there’s the over-hyped “cuts down on tropical systems”. While it’s true that dry air often accompanies the dust clouds, I’ve seen many instances where tropical waves have just waited out the dust until they can get into a more favorable meteorological environment & then take off. The African dust - a mainstay of every hurricane season for eons - typically peaks in June & July. Some of that dust regularly makes it to the Caribbean Islands & sometimes to Fl. & the Gulf Coast & U.S. east coast. It’s not harmful. The yellow, orange & red areas on the imagery below indicates dust. One can plainly see the minuscule dust over Cuba & the Southern Bahamas (where there will still be afternoon convection).

Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU has updated his Atlantic seasonal forecast. Dr. “K’ has now increased his forecast to “above average” primarily due to abnormally warm Atlantic sea surface temps. The El Nino is coming on strong which usually results in increased wind shear across the Atlantic &, therefore, lower numbers, but there’s concern the warm ocean may compensate to at least some degree. The European global forecast model is indicating an active Atlantic (a good part of it rather far to the east) though the Euro’s seasonal accuracy has not recently (last few years) been very good. But there have been several tweaks in an attempt to improve the bias, so we’ll see how things go in the coming weeks & months.

For right now - a series of upper level troughs/low pressure systems may try to consolidate over the Central Atlantic by late week into the following week. Some gradual subtropical or even tropical development will be possible while remaining over the open Atlantic.

A fairly strong tropical wave is moving across the Central Atlantic. Plentiful wind shear should keep this wave in check while moving W/NW.

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

July tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for July (already at 3 named storms):

Wind shear:


Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Don” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors will expand rather dramatically by Aug./Sept./Oct.:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

East Pacific:

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity:



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