Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure may form over the W. Atlantic this week

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Through June 14th:

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

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*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None through the week ahead.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

There are no indications of sustained low pressure development over the Gulf of Mexico this week though the GFS model is still ding-donging once in a while about such though has become less adamant. The Canadian model still shows some development over the Eastern Gulf but simply is not enough model agreement & consistency to indicate significant low pressure will form.

It does look like low pressure will eventually develop over the Western Atlantic later this week. The low will progress east/northeast & appears to be nontropical with frontal features - at least initially. As the low continues to move away from the U.S., there *may* be some attempts at a tropical or subtropical transition over the open Atlantic.

Bottom line: A much needed increase in rainfall will occur for Jacksonvile/NE Fl./SE Ga. as well as much of Florida this week as tropical moisture surges northward. This will be beneficial rain for what has been a very slow start to the wet season & will be heaviest across Central & South Florida where amounts may reach 6-12″ +!

Rainfall forecasts for NE Fl. & SE Ga. are trending downward but there will still likely be some locally heavy rainfall.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is unseasonably high for this time of year:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

June tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November (7 hurricanes so far, 19 tropical storms):

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Alberto” is the first name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: