Talking the Tropics With Mike: Gulf of Mexico tropical development potential continues increasing

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None through the weekend into early next week. All areas from Texas to Florida need to stay up to date on the latest forecasts for mid to late parts of the upcoming week.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* The Caribbean & Southern Gulf of Mexico remain an area to carefully monitor next week for tropical development. This is a favored area for genesis later in Sept. & virtually all forecast models indicate low pressure “of some sort” gradually developing. However, consistency amongst the models is seriously lacking. Don’t get caught up with unreliable sources & crazy postings on social media & elsewhere.

* “Gordon” remnants + multiple tropical waves over the Central & Eastern Atlantic have at least some potential for development but remain far to the east.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) It seems likely that low pressure will be developing over the Northwest Caribbean &/or Southern Gulf of Mexico next week. I’ve been hitting on this for days but models have been all over the place on both location & intensity.

The experimental ‘horizon’ forecast model by Climavision’s HorizonAI Global Model (this model uses its own data & analysis for initialization of each model run + some AI input) has at least been consistent in indicating tropical development - forecast map below is for early Fri., Sept. 27. The model has recently trended a little faster & remains pretty robust (central pressure near 985mb) but does seem to have settled on a Southern then Central then North Central Gulf of Mexico track. Virtually all other global models are indicating development as well - anywhere from the Western & Southern Gulf to the Northwest Caribbean. The GFS has been & still is generally the most aggressive & farthest to the east while the European operation model has recently become stronger & much farther east after being a west outlier & quite weak for most of the past 5-6 days... the Canadian model is generally similar to the Horizon model in showing a hit on the Central Gulf Coast by late week.

Any potential tropical system in this area should have at least some semblance of a northward movement thanks to general troughing aloft over the Lower 48. This is a climatologically favored area for tropical development later in Sept. & such systems are often steered northward by an ever more active, more meridional jet stream as we start to see the impacts of autumn weather patterns. The water, of course, is very warm & deep oceanic heat content is just about at its annual peak.

I suspect that low pressure/tropical development in this area will likely be gradual (festering) at first. Then once/if the energy can be “bundled”/organized, the disturbance *may* significantly increase in intensity. At the moment, there is a good deal of mid & upper level wind shear along with lots of dry air, but the atmosphere is likely to undergo a good deal of change next week possibly becoming for conducive for a strengthening tropical system. So the Caribbean & especially Gulf will be an area to carefully monitor through the next week.

Anyone living along - or traveling to - the area from Texas to Florida needs to stay up to date on the latest forecasts.

(2) ‘93-L’ was upgraded last Wed. morning to tropical depression seven & Fri. morning (Sept. 13) to tropical storm Gordon then back down to a depression late Sunday & then degenerated into an open tropical wave Tue. afternoon. The Bermuda high remains displaced to the east & northeast over the Atlantic & such a position favors an alleyway for systems to turn north over the Central Atlantic. “Gordy” has been struggling against mid & upper level wind shear, overall subsidence & dry air.

Other tropical waves are moving west/northwest across the Central & Eastern Atlantic with at least some potential for development but will generally - at least for the next week to 10 days - stay far to the east over the open Atlantic.

Fitting the pattern for the increased tropical activity overall - as well as the wet/cloudy spell the first 2 weeks of September for Florida - is persistent & seasonally strong surface high pressure at northern latitudes from the Central U.S. to the Northwest Atlantic. This high pressure will bring has brought an early taste of fall across the Northern U.S. & generally encourages low pressure to the south - a pattern that often favors tropical development at southern latitudes. It’s Mother Nature’s constant balancing/compensating act. And it’s likely why we’ve seen forecast models struggle with the overall pattern developing sometimes spurious & frequent low pressure areas near & south of about 35 degrees N. It may also be why low pressure areas have a hard time “bundling” their energy - there’s just so much low pressure at lower latitudes competing for “space”.

Climavision’s HorizonAI Global Model for early Fri., 09/27 (trend has been faster, more north & NE):

The ultimate track of the *possible* storm will be dictated by an upper level trough that continues to get reinforced over the contiguous U.S. & any potential ridging underneath or on either side of the trough. Essentially - a stronger, deeper (more south) trough would allow for more north or even northeastward movement while a stronger ridge &/or weaker trough would allow the system to stay more west or perhaps even languish over the Gulf for a while.

500mb forecast from the GFS for Thu., 09/26. The upper level trough over the Central U.S. + positioning of a high pressure cell over the Western Atlantic & stronger ridge to the west will be key in where a Gulf tropical cyclone might track:

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below still shows “sinking” air (brown lines) across the Atlantic Basin. In such a state, tropical development can occur but overall conditions are not as conducive as when there is overall rising (green lines) air such as much of the Pacific Basin where convection is active. This “pulse” of upward motion is moving eastward toward the Atlantic Basin & may help to be a cause for an uptick in Atlantic activity late this month into October.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

September tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for September (2 hurricane so far, 3 tropical storms):

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Helene” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Peak of the hurricane season Sept. 10th:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:

East & Central Pacific:

Hawaii satellite imagery:

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity:

“Pulasan”:

“Soulik”: