Talking the Tropics With Mike: Caribbean disturbance likely to develop... Gulf low to cross Florida

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*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) The Caribbean remains an area that will need to be carefully monitored as some gradual tropical development looks likely - a historically a “hot spot” for late season development.

This time around it looks like gradual development with low pressure potentially emerging by the middle to end of this week over the Western & Central Caribbean. General movement should be to the northeast, so a heads-up for Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, Hispaniola & possible Puerto Rico & parts of the Lesser Antilles.

Run to run inter-model continuity & agreement amongst the models is poor though more of the global models are now indicating development. So - at this point - stay tuned & up to date on the latest forecasts. All indications are that this system will stay well south & east of Florida.

(2) non-tropical low pressure is forming over the Northwest Gulf of Mexico & will move eastward. While tropical characteristics are not expected, there will be some heavy rain along the Gulf Coast & Southeast U.S. during the upcoming week. The low will then redevelop over the far W. Atlantic just east of Florida then will move north/northeast. Some subtropical characteristics will be possible while staying offshore.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean with plenty of warm water far below the surface in the Caribbean:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

November tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November (7 hurricanes so far, 19 tropical storms):

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Vince” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.: