Talking the Tropics With Mike: Broad Ernesto moving north of Bermuda...rip currents along east coast

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: A high rip current risk at area beaches into the weekend due to distant Ernesto to the east combined with onshore flow.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) “Debby” - The 4th Atlantic named storm of the season strengthened into the 2nd hurricane of the season with the 11pm Sunday, 08/04 advisory. Debby made landfall at 7am EDT - Mon., 08/05 - near Steinhatchee some 60-70 miles north/northwest of Cedar Key followed by a second landfall as a tropical storm at Bulls Bay, SC early Thu.

For the details & summary on “Debby” - click * here * (”Buresh Blog”).

(2) Disturbance - ‘98-L’ (’potential tropical cyclone five’) came off the coast of Africa early to mid last week & was upgraded Mon. afternoon, 08/12 to tropical storm “Ernesto” - the 5th named storm of the Atlantic season (avg. date for the 5th storm is Aug. 22) & became a hurricane Wed. morning, Aug. 14 - the 3rd hurricane of the Atlantic season - something that doesn’t happen on avg. until Sept. 7th. Ernesto made the sharp turn to the north staying well east of the U.S. east coast.

Through about midday Sunday there will be a bit of a stall as an Eastern U.S. trough lifts out leaving Ernesto behind. So it will take a follow-up trough to fully capture Ernesto which won’t take long. This subsequent trough will draw Ernesto back to the north for a while grazing the southeast coast of Newfoundland Monday while transitioning to a post-tropical low then finally accelerating over the North Atlantic in tandem with the next upper level trough.

Though staying far to the east of the U.S., there will be a serious rip current risk at area beaches through the weekend due to an easterly swell.

Reminder: the shaded area below shows where tropical development is likely but is *not* a forecast cone:

(3) A couple of tropical waves between the Caribbean & the coast of Africa & may have some long term potential to slowly develop while moving relatively slowly (vs. Ernesto) westward across the Eastern & Central Atlantic. Right now most forecast models show little significant development, but it’s something to watch.

... And the front that moved across NE Fl./SE Ga. Thu. is stalling while weakening & degenerating into an surface trough while remaining stretched out across the SW Atlantic, Florida & Central/Eastern Gulf. This can be a breeding ground for tropical mischief if t’storms clusters develop & manage to maintain themselves. Nothing indicated for now but a plausible scenario that bears watching.

Historical note: Small but powerful Cat. 4 hurricane “Charley” made landfall 20 years ago this week - on Aug. 13th - on Florida’s southwest coast near Punta Gorda. This was the first Florida “major” hurricane landfall since “Andrew” (Cat. 5) in 1992 & Charley moved swiftly northeast across Florida causing extensive damage in Orlando as the eye wall was still intact. This very damaging scenario for Central Florida - winds measured greater than 100 mph - was the birth of the ‘extreme wind warning’. The N.W.S Charley post storm assessment * here *... Miami post storm report * here *... NHC tropical cyclone report * here *.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is unseasonably high for this time of year:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

August tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August (1 hurricane so far, 3 tropical storms):

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Francine” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: