Talking the Tropics With Garrett: ‘96-L’ still hanging on, but not for long

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Welcome to August! 120 days until the end of the Atlantic hurricane season (November 30). :) We are beginning our climb up the climatological mountain, so to speak. Typically, NE Florida and SE Georgia have to get to about mid-October before the tropical threat begins to really decrease.

Central Atlantic... A tropical wave, “96-L,” continues to move north/northwest in the Central Atlantic. Showers and storms continue to be primarily displaced to the east of the “center” of the area of low pressure. This is due to 20-30 knots of wind shear blowing the storms to the east. That is slightly lower than yesterday, but still good enough to limit development. A few thunderstorms have been able to get closer to the center overnight/Wednesday morning. However, it appears to increasingly look like this wave will not develop. If were to briefly organize, that would be short-lived. A frontal boundary will be approaching over the next day and should absorb 96-L. We don’t have to worry about this one. It will remain out to sea.

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

July tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Emily” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.