Talking the Tropics w/ Mike: A recap of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

Jacksonville, Fl. — The 2024 hurricane season was forecast to be active & - unfortunately - that forecast was accurate. The table below shows the average Atlantic hurricane season vs. Dr. Phil Klotzbach’s preseason forecast ... NOAA’s preseason outlook... & the ‘24 reality:

The season began with powerful hurricane Beryl in late June but then went relatively quiet until mid September:

Only 3 names were left on the ‘24 list:

5 hurricanes hit the U.S. - Beryl (Cat. 1), Francine (Cat. 2), Debby (Cat. 1), Helene (Cat. 4) & Milton (Cat. 3). The most landfalling tropical cyclones in a single season is 12 in 2020. The most U.S. landfalling hurricanes in a season is 6 set in 2020, 1985 & 1886.

A month by month breakdown:

JUNE

19th - the Atlantic season kicked off with Alberto forming in the Bay of Campeche (far SW Gulf of Mexico)

20th - Tropical storm Alberto landfall in E/NE Mexico

28th - Tropical depression #2 forms over the Central Atlantic & becomes Beryl

30th - Beryl become a Cat. 4 hurricane east of the Windward Islands - earliest Cat. 4 on record for the Atlantic Basin.

JULY

1st - Cat. 4 Beryl Lesser Antilles landfall with severe damage on the island of Grenada. Damage photos in the Antilles from the BBC * here *.

3rd - Cat. 4 Beryl landfall on the extreme southwest coast of Jamaica

8th - Cat. 1 Beryl landfall at Matagorda, Texas (13 days after the early season wave left the African coast)

AUGUST

2nd - Tropical depression #4 forms over Cuba

3rd - T.D. #4 strengthens into tropical storm Debby over the Southeast Gulf of Mexico

4th - Debby goes hurricane over the Northeast Gulf

5th- Cat. 1 hurricane Debby landfall at Steinhatchee, Florida Big Bend. Local impacts include gusty winds, heavy rain & isolated tornadoes over NE Fl. & SE Ga. A recap of Debby - details & analysis - in the “Buresh Blog” * here *.

12th - Tropical storm Ernesto forms over the Central Atlantic

14th - Ernesto becomes a hurricane over Central Atlantic

17th - Cat. 1 hurricane Ernesto landfall on the island of Bermuda

SEPTEMBER

9th - After a 3 week break through the peak of the hurricane season, tropical storm Francine forms over the Western Gulf

11th - Cat. 2 hurricane Francine landfall 30 miles south/southwest of Morgan City, Louisiana; tropical depression #7 forms over the Eastern Atlantic

13th - Tropical depression #7 becomes tropical storm Gordon over the East Atlantic... dissipates on the 17th

24th - Tropical storm Helene forms over the Northwest Caribbean

25th - Helene goes hurricane over the Southern Gulf of Mexico; tropical storm Isaac forms over the North Atlantic

26th - Cat. 4 hurricane Helene landfall at 11:10pm EDT 10 miles W/SW of Perry, Fl/Big Bend. Local tree damage & power outages in Jacksonville, North Central Fl. near/north of I-10 & much of Southeast Georgia. “The Hell that was Helene” in the “Buresh Blog” * here *.

Helene strengthened rather quickly & steadily:

Highest storm surge values were along Central Florida coast reach 6-7+ feet. Generally less than 3 feet for NE Florida & SE Georgia:

27th - Isaac becomes a hurricane over the North Atlantic; Tropical storm Joyce forms over the East Atlantic

30th - Last Isaac advisory North Atlantic; last Joyce advisory North Central Atlantic; Tropical storm Kirk forms over the East Atlantic

OCTOBER

1st - Kirk becomes a hurricane over the East Atlantic

2nd - Tropical storm Leslie forms over the East Atlantic

5th - Tropical depression #14 forms over the Western Gulf of Mexico & strengthens into tropical storm Milton

6th - Milton becomes a hurricane over the Western Gulf

7th - Milton becomes a Cat. 5 over the Southern Gulf

9th - Ct. 3 hurricane Milton landfall at Siesta Key, Fl. (just south of Tampa Bay) at 8:30pm EDT... local impacts include strong winds, heavy rain & some power outages near/south of I-10. “Mighty Milton” * here * in the “Buresh Blog”.

An outstanding longer range forecast by the National Hurricane Center:

Cat. 3 at landfall:

Peak intensity over the Southern Gulf of Mexico:

Heaviest rainfall & strongest winds were south of I-10:

A major tornado outbreak occurred across South & East Central Florida as Milton approached the Fl. west coast:

19th - Tropical storm Nadine forms over the Western Caribbean followed by a Belize landfall; Oscar forms over the Southeast Bahamas & becomes a tiny Cat. 1 hurricane

20th - Cat. 1 hurricane Oscar landfall on the east coast of Cuba

22nd - Last Oscar advisory over the Bahamas

NOVEMEBER

2nd - Subtropical storm Patty forms over the Northeast Atlantic

4th - Tropical depression #18 forms over the Southern Caribbean and strengthens into tropical storm Rafael

5th - Rafael becomes a hurricane over the Western Caribbean

6th - Cat. 3 hurricane Rafael landfall 40 miles southwest of Havana at 4:15pm EST

10th - Rafael dissipates over the Central Gulf of Mexico

14th - Tropical depression #19 forms over the Western Caribbean & strengthens into tropical storm Sara

17th - Tropical storm Sara landfall on the coast of Belize then dissipates over the Yucatan Peninsula on the 18th.

THE TROPICS:

The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH “Preparing for the Storm”

WATCH “The Ins & Outs of Hurricane Season”

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center “Preparation Guide”

LISTEN “First Alert Weather, Preparing for the Storm. The behaviors that could put your family at risk this hurricane season”

Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) * here *.

***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! ****

Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.

* “Mighty Milton” - Buresh Blog - recap of the hurricane including the forecast.

* “The Hell that was Helene” - Buresh Blog.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

It’s the last week of the Atlantic hurricane season... there are no areas of immediate concern.

Some long range global models show weak low pressure trying to form over the Southern or Western Caribbean & there continues to be a good deal of disorganized convection over the Central Caribbean. Any low pressure that might form should stay away from the Lower 48 of the U.S. as upper level troughing holds firm over the Eastern half of the U.S.

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below. shows “Rising” air (green lines) equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. Where there are brown lines, the air is generally sinking & is often less conducive to tropical cyclones (though not impossible to have development).

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

November tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Tony” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: