Talking the Tropics w/ Mike: Rafael goes hurricane ... headed for Western Cuba

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: Rafael will move from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico with its broad circulation enhancing rainfall somewhat Wed.-Thu. along with continued onshore flow causing rough seas & surf & a high rip current risk.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* Rafael moves across Western Cuba Wed. & then over the Gulf of Mexico late week into the weekend.

* Low pressure developing near the Southeast Bahamas

* “Mighty Milton” - Buresh Blog - recap of the hurricane including the forecast.

* “The Hell that was Helene” - Buresh Blog.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) Rafael:

A Hurricane WARNING: Cayman Islands ... Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm WARNING: Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila ... Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge ... Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm WATCH: Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas.

Climavision ‘HorizonAI’ global model is below & has generally been a good “steady eddy” & compromise between other models this hurricane season. The forecast map below is for Wed., Nov. 6th indicating a strong Rafael moving away from the northwest coast of Cuba into the Southern Gulf of Mexico. The next forecast map is for early Sat., Nov. 9 showing a much weaker Rafael making landfall east of New Orleans. The model has generally remained consistent on intensity - stronger south, weaker north... & has trended a bit west.

The upper level (~30,000 feet) forecast indicates broad & strong trough over the Central U.S. with a ridge of high pressure near & to the east of Florida. This set-up is allowing for an alleyway from the Caribbean to the Gulf of Mexico & eventually the Central Gulf coastline. The ‘Horizon’ follows this alleyway all the way to the coast - east of New Orleans - as does the GFS & Canadian model while the European models show a stronger ridge east of Fl. & less influence from the trough helping to turn the system sharper to the west over the Gulf before slowly turning north... & the European model is generally much weaker overall though is stronger now then it’s ever been. Virtually all models show weakening over the Gulf despite the orientation of an upper level trough with a tropical system to its south/SE which can increase upper level ventilation &, therefore, help increase a tropical cyclone. *But in this case*... the trough is so far to the north & west that there is subsidence (sinking air) over the Northern Gulf. Gulf water temps. are sufficiently warm but not as warm as earlier in the season. There will be increasing mid & upper level shear - out of the west 40+ mph - as well as an east-west zone of substantially dry air. It all adds up to a strong hurricane over the Southern Gulf pretty rapidly decaying on its move north across the Gulf.

So the bottom line: an initially stronger storm - a hurricane - moving across Cuba Wed. & managing to stay strong & quite menacing over the far Southern Gulf before weakening the more north Rafael gets over the Gulf later in the week through the weekend.

The most significant impacts for Florida appear to be the potential for heavy rain largely driven by a surge of tropical moisture around the circulation of “Rafael” on the west coast & Panhandle.... & driven by onshore flow on the east coast including - to at least some degree - Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. though amounts don’t look to be excessive for most of the Peninsula.

It would there will otherwise be few “major” impacts for Florida though gusty winds & heavy rain + some storm surge will impact the Lower Keys & Dry Tortugas.

Then there will be late weekend impacts on the Gulf Coast anywhere from Texas to Alabama though Rafael should be well off its peak by then.

Shear out of the west increased markedly over the Central & Northern Gulf to 30-40+ mph:

7-Day rainfall forecast:

(2) There are indications of another system over the Southwest Atlantic over the weekend into early next week. The next area of low pressure looks to develop within a few days near the SE Bahamas & should initially at least move westward. Forecast models are not overly strong with this low, but it’s something to keep an eye on with possibly some heavy rain & gusty winds for the Bahamas, Hispaniola & South Florida this weekend into early next week.

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows “sinking” air (brown lines) across the Atlantic Basin which equates with a downturn in overall convection. With sinking air, tropical development can occur but overall conditions are not as conducive as when there is overall rising (green lines) air where convection is active. An upward “pulse” has centered itself over the Atlantic Basin which is aiding Rafael & possible future development of a low over the SW Atlantic followed by yet another *possible* system over the Caribbean at mid month.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

November tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Sara” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season: