Talking the Tropics w/ Mike: Milton forms Western Gulf-fast changing tropics forecast into next week

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Tropics threats for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None though the weekend... at least some impacts Tue. through Wed., possibly into Thursday from “Milton”.

LOCAL IMPACTS FROM WHAT WILL BE MILTON FOR JACKSONVILLE/NE FLORIDA & SE GEORGIA:

* There is still a goo deal of uncertainty in this forecast so impacts will be changing & will have to be amended/updated

* I understand there are “scary” headlines & social media posts out there. I will remain constant, vigilant, responsible & as consistent as possible with the local impacts. There is no need to panic but checking & updating storm preparedness kits & plans would be smart.

* It would appear for right now that the greatest impacts to the local area would be south & east of hardest hit areas from Helene - the Lake City to Waycross corridor.

* Rain, heavy at times - not related to tropical systems - will occur across NE Fl. & SE Ga. through Sunday. This will sort of “set the table” for possible flooding when/if heavy rain from Milton reaches the local area by Tue. into Wed. There is a lot of water in the “system”.... the ground is saturated... & flooding will easily occur during heavy rain. Amounts looks to average 1-2″, locally more through Sunday - heaviest Highway 301 to the coast. Rainfall amounts Tue.-Wed. look to be heaviest near/south of I-10 & along the coast & could be 3″+ depending on exact track of Milton.

* Winds will be breezy with onshore flow through Sunday into Monday. Then winds should increase Tue.-Wed. with the closest approach of - wherever that is - Milton. The exact magnitude of these winds is to still be determined. But trees will again be susceptible to being rather easily uprooted due to saturated ground.

* This one looks pretty tough on the beaches with an extended period of increasing onshore flow increasing in intensity each day through Wed. before becoming offshore Thu./Fri. Expect beach erosion & coastal flooding.

* Minor flooding can be expected along the St. Johns River & its tributaries through Monday, especially at high tide.. then possibly moderate flooding Tue.-Wed.

* Storm surge potential is still to be determined but could be several feet - again depending on exact track & intensity of Milton.

“Buresh Bottom Line”:

* Milton over the Western Gulf will move steadily east/northeast with a Florida landfall potentially Wed. (Oct. 9th) as a hurricane.

* “Kirk” & “Leslie” over the far Eastern Atlantic..

* “The Hell that was Helene” - Buresh Blog.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) Heads-up Florida - hurricane preparedness should be underway this weekend through the early part of the upcoming week.

Low pressure became tropical depression #14 over the Western Gulf Sat. morning & was upgraded to tropical storm “Milton” Sat. afternoon - the 13th named storm of the Atlantic season... the avg. date for the 13th storm is Oct. 25th.

Forecast models are in good agreement on a strengthening tropical cyclone (hurricane) hitting the west coast of Florida.... pretty evenly matched on timing - Wed.-ish... but woefully at different locations along the west coast. The GFS is the northern most global model - just north of Tampa Bay Wed. afternoon... this would have much bigger implications for Jax/NE Fl. The European is closer to Ft. Myers/Port Charlotte Wed. morning & would take the biggest impacts & heaviest rain south of Jacksonville but still heavy for St. Johns & Putnam Co. + wind. The Canadian model is much farther south - south of Ft. Myers & much slower - not ‘til Friday - such a track would keep impacts far from Jacksonville.

The Climavision ‘Horizon AI’ global model initiated a trend late Thu. to stronger & more north with a fairly strong tropical cyclone approaching Tampa Bay by Wed. The ‘Horizon’ was quite good with Helene. The ‘Horizon’ has very recently trended a little more south but no telling yet if that’s a steady trend.

Overall - the global long range forecast models seem to be battling broad low pressure at lower latitudes & have been developing multiple low pressures that struggle to organize. In fact, weak low pressure to the east of Milton will move across South Florida over the weekend & may be interfering with model output for the moment & complicating the overall scenario. I also wonder about whether or not this lead weak low will be strong enough to nudge a front south some which would possibly then take Milton a little more south.

Nonetheless it does appear the west &/or SW coast of Fl. is line for a hurricane Wed., possibly into Thu.

But beware! - this set-up remains in flux... AND regardless there is a consistent signal for at least several days of heavy rain & potentially significant flooding for parts of Florida this weekend into next week particularly centered on Central & South Florida. Expect specific forecast details to ebb & flow in the coming days until a decent core with Milton develops.

Suffice to say at this point the area will need to be closely monitored. It does appear an upper level - 500mb - trough of low pressure diving down into the Eastern U.S. will have a lot to do with where the eventual possible Gulf low might go. A deeper trough will tend to draw any disturbance northward. However, if the trough axis is far enough east, the disturbance would get shunted more east before turning northeast. Confluent upper level flow on the backside of the trough should continue at least some shear near Florida as well as a vector pointing SE - both of which could be factors in how the tropical cyclone might develop & move. Bottom line is it’s still too early to determine exactly what exactly will come of Milton & where it might go.

But heads-up Florida!

Climavision’s HorizonAI Global Model (this model uses its own data & analysis for initialization of each model run + some AI input) valid for Wed. afternoon, Oct. 9 shows a strong hurricane approaching Tampa Bay - ~970mb/28.65″ or lower:

This is the ‘Horizon’ 500 mb (upper level) forecasts for early Mon., Oct 7th showing the digging trough into the Northeast U.S. with more of a “baggy” trough to the south interacting with what should become “Milton”. This trough will impart some shear over/near Florida as well as a tendency to *possibly” suppress the tropical cyclone at least a little more south (vs. Gulf Coast).

Strong shear over Northern Gulf may tilt Milton at least some to the east. But Milton will moving in the direction of the shear vectors which may not hinder the storm as much as the magnitudes of 25+ mph typically might. Otherwise all other systems are “go” - warm to very warm water... lots of atmospheric moisture.

7-day forecast rainfall:

GFS 500mb forecast for this Sunday. The persistent alleyway over the Central Atlantic looks like it stay intact effectively protecting the U.S. & Caribbean from Kirk & Leslie over the Eastern Atlantic:

(2) “Kirk” has quickly strengthened over the Eastern Atlantic. Kirk became a hurricane Tue., the 7th of the Atlantic season which does not occur until Nov. 15th in an “average” season... & became a ‘major’ Cat. 3+ hurricane Thu. Kirk is already northward & will stay far away from the Caribbean or U.S. & far to the east of Bermuda. The Bermuda High remains weaker & displaced to the east/northeast allowing for a nice & early alleyway over the Central Atlantic which Eastern Atlantic tropical systems can follow keeping them far from any land areas & certainly well east of the Caribbean & U.S. The average date for the 11th named storm is Sept. 14th so nothing at all unusual right now vs. climatology when it comes to named storms vs. the avg. Atlantic hurricane season.

(3) Tropical depression #13 has formed right behind - to the east of - & was upgraded to “Leslie” Wed. night & became a hurricane Fri. evening - the 8th of the Atlantic season & now exceeds the avg. for the entire season of 7 hurricanes. Like Kirk, sister Leslie will stay well out to the east over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. The 12th named storm develops - on avg. - Oct. 11th.

Due to the intensity of the two storms, an easterly swell will emanate far to the west reaching the east coast this weekend into next week enhancing the rip current risk at beaches along the east coast, Bermuda & the Caribbean.

‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below shows far less “sinking” air (brown lines) spreading across the Pacific Basin. With sinking air, tropical development can occur but overall conditions are not as conducive as when there is overall rising (green lines) air where convection is active. This “pulse” of upward motion has moved eastward & likely helped Helene & other Atlantic tropical cyclones & is past its peak. The low over the Gulf of Mexico will have to battle the less favorable vertical velocity environment.

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is very high:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

October tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we’ve already seen this with Beryl & Debby this year). In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Milton” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

Hurricane season climatology:

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:

East & Central Pacific:

Central Pacific:

Hawaii satellite imagery:

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity:

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