Jacksonville, FL — “Talking the Tropics With Mike” - updated everyday during the hurricane season.
We’ve reached the peak of the hurricane season. It doesn’t mean it’s over... in fact, there’s a secondary peak in mid Oct. partially due to a more active & usually more south (meridional) jet stream & still warm ocean temps. In the case of this year, we may see an active mid to late season because of the increasing La Nina (cooling of the equatorial Pacific) as well as an active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Velocity potential anomalies map - related to the MJO - shows the rising air over the Western Pacific which often corellates to an increase in tropical activity. This “pulse” is due to reach the Atlantic Basin by late Sept. into Oct.
Warm temps. across the Atlantic Basin:
Very warm deep water across the SW Atlantic, Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico:
La Nina conditions look to be underway near the equatorial Pacific:
A far majority of the Atlantic’s tropical cyclones occurs from mid Aug. to mid Oct.:
The active season so far is only slightly behind the entire 2020 season for U.S. landfalls (11):
Female names were only usued intially when consistent naming of tropical cyclones began in the 1950s. Male names started to be included in 1979. The lists of names repeats every 6 years so the chart below shows all the original 126 names, 52 of which have been retired (& replaced). This season’s 2020 list is the same as 1979 from which 7 names have been retired. All of the original ‘F’ names have been retired which none of the ‘V’ names have been retired.... so far.
An interesting point in weather history in mid Sept. - on the 15th to be exact - in 1904. From NOAA:
“Preparing to launch America’'s first “ballon-sonde.”Since this first launch on September 15, 1904, in St. Louis, Missouri,literally millions of weather balloons have been launched by the National Weather Service and its predecessor organization.”
Radiosonde launches bring us critical information from the upper levels of the atmosphere that today is augmented by passenger jets in the air & Doppler Radar on the ground.
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