It’s been a hot July & early August in Jacksonville. Now - it’s been hotter, but the temps. have been notable with July at JIA the hottest since the thermometer has been at the Int’l. Airport - since 1956 - & the 4th hottest since 1871 (the period of weather record for Jacksonville).
The El Nino - a warming of the equatorial Pacific continues & is strengthening in what looks to be a moderate to strong El Nino following 3 straight La Nina’s (cooling of the equatorial Pacific):
El Nino is known for helping to cause fewer Atlantic hurricanes, more Pacific hurricanes... a wet/stormy winter from California east along the Gulf Coast including Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga... & generally milder winters at northern latitudes.
Most of the forecast models peak the El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere’s late fall into winter:
NOAA has issued their updated seasonal hurricane forecast & increased the numbers despite the ongoing & increasing El Nino. Most of the reasoning is based on very warm ocean temps. Ultimately the season will, of course, be remembered - or not - for any storms that make landfall & their strength upon landfall. The First Alert Hurricane Center * here *.
Terrible wildfires in Hawaii - centered on Maui. More * here * & * here * on Action News Jax. A combination of very strong winds & dry conditions conspired to make for a literal death trap on the island. Somewhat ironically - but probably not simply a coincidence- a similar fire occurred in Maui in the late 1800′s during a strong El Nino. Some facts regarding the wildfire: * much of Hawaii is typically dry this time of year. For Kahului to the west of Maui on the same island, rainfall for June averages 0.12″... July: 0.53″ & the first half of Aug.: 0.17″. So it’s typically dry this time of year. * strong trade winds are a trade mark of Hawaii’s summer with gusts frequently above 20-30 mph & sometimes - as was the case in last week’s horrific wildfire - up to 60, even 70 mph. A similar fire & set-up occurred in the late 1800′s.
Hawaii fire: An attendee reacts during a Sunday church service held at Lahaina's Grace Baptist Church. (YUKI IWAMURA/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: A burnt-out car lies in the driveway of a charred house in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, Hawaii. (PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: A burnt out car and a sign reading "No Way Through" stand in the driveway of charred apartment complex in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina. (YUKI IWAMURA/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Tempers flared as residents waited in long lines as they are not allowed to pass a checkpoint to return to their homes in Lahaina. (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Imag)
Hawaii fire A resident found some dishes among the rubble of a house that survived the wildfire. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Hawaii fire Crews are searching areas for flareups, items, and missing people following the wildfires in Hawaii swept through the area. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Maui residents John Rey Serrano and Lexie Lara look from a road above Lahaina Town in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii. (PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Davilynn Severson holds a page of a yearbook as she looks for belongings through the ashes of their family's home in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina. (PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Maui resident John Rey Serrano reacts while looking from a road above Lahaina Town in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii. (PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Hano Ganer looks through the ashes of his family's home on Malolo Place in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii. (PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Trixy Nuesca-Ganer looks through the ashes of their family's home in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina. (PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: A woman cradles her cat after finding him in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii. (MOSES SLOVATIZKI/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Burnt books are seen by the public library in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii. (MOSES SLOVATIZKI/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: A burned cars sits among destroyed buildings in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii. (PAULA RAMON/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: A destroyed building is pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii. (PAULA RAMON/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Burned cars, destroyed buildings and homes are pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii (PAULA RAMON/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Destroyed buildings and homes are pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii. (PAULA RAMON/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Residents walk among their destroyed home in the aftermath of a wildfire in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii. (PAULA RAMON/AFP via Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Zoltan Balogh clears away trees that were burned by wildfire in Kula, Hawaii. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: In an aerial view, cars back up for miles on the Honoapiilani highway as residents are allowed back into areas affected by the recent wildfire on Friday. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Hawaii fire: Burned houses and buildings are pictured in the aftermath of a wildfire, is seen in Lahaina, western Maui, Hawaii. (YUKI IWAMURA/AFP via Getty Images)