What is the Waffle House Index?: A reliable indicator of hurricane severity as Milton approaches Florida

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Waffle House, the classic comfort diner known for its freshly made crispy waffles at any time of day, is a cherished part of Southern cuisine. However, Waffle House is more than just a breakfast hotspot during hurricane season; this iconic diner chain has become an unconventional yet effective measure for evaluating storm severity, creating the Waffle House Index.

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Waffle Houses are typically open 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

With over 1,900 locations, mostly in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, the operational status of local Waffle Houses becomes a focal point for residents when hurricanes strike Southeastern towns. If a location stays open, even with a limited menu, it provides reassurance that the storm might not result in widespread devastation. Contrarily, a closed Waffle House signals a serious situation and tells local residents to prepare.

Though it may seem unusual, this metric has proven to be a trustworthy indicator of potential storm damage for both local and federal emergency responders. Following Hurricane Helene, approximately two dozen Waffle House locations in the Carolinas and Georgia remained closed nearly two weeks after the storm, with several others operating on limited menus as communities began to recover.

As Hurricane Milton approaches Florida, Waffle House locations along the Gulf Coast, including those in Tampa, Cape Coral, and St. Petersburg, have already closed in preparation for the impending storm.

Milton is currently a powerful Category 4 hurricane, raising alarms about potential severe damage and flooding along Florida’s west coast.

What Is the Waffle House Index?

The Waffle House Index is an informal measure used by residents and officials alike to gauge a storm’s impact. With over 1,900 locations concentrated in the Southeast and mid-Atlantic, the status of these restaurants has become a quick way to assess whether an area is likely to lose power, experience significant flooding, or suffer other extreme weather conditions.

The index uses a color-coded system:

• Green: The restaurant is fully operational, indicating minimal damage in the surrounding area.
• Yellow: The location has a limited menu and often runs on generator power with limited supplies. This suggests significant disruptions in the area, such as power outages or a lack of water.
• Red: The restaurant is closed, signaling severe damage or unsafe conditions in the community.

READ: Hurricane Milton: These Northeast Florida counties have recommended or mandated evacuations

How Did the Index Begin?

The Waffle House Index originated in 2004 during Hurricane Charley. Former FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate, then leading Florida’s emergency management efforts, noticed that Waffle House locations were among the few businesses still open in communities that had lost power. Fugate and his team began tracking the status of the restaurants to assess storm damage, eventually creating the color-coded system now used by FEMA and other agencies.

Fugate’s system proved so effective that when he joined FEMA under President Barack Obama, the Waffle House Index was adopted on a broader scale. It has since been used to track recovery efforts following numerous disasters, including the deadly tornado that hit Joplin, Missouri, in 2011.

Waffle House’s Disaster Preparedness

Waffle House’s ability to stay open during disasters is no accident. The company revamped its disaster response strategy after losing seven locations and closing 100 more during Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Today, the chain has invested in portable generators, mobile command centers, and extensive training for employees to ensure that its restaurants can remain operational, even under extreme conditions.

RELATED: Control the path and power of hurricanes like Milton? Forget it, scientists say

What the Index Says About Hurricane Milton

With many Waffle House locations in Central and Southern Florida already closed, the Waffle House Index suggests that Hurricane Milton could cause severe damage. The storm is expected to make landfall on Florida’s west coast late Wednesday, bringing with it potentially catastrophic storm surges and high winds. As the Gulf Coast braces for impact, the closures serve as a warning that this could be one of the most destructive storms in nearly 100 years.

Waffle House Index for the Jacksonville Area?

As Hurricane Milton approaches, Jacksonville residents are keenly observing the status of local Waffle House locations as a barometer for the storm’s impact. Although the city is not directly in the path of the hurricane, its proximity to the Gulf Coast means that residents must remain vigilant. Local Waffle House establishments are preparing for potential impacts; however, no locations are scheduled to close due to the storm.

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READ: Live Updates: Hurricane Milton now Cat. 4, evacuation orders in St. Augustine, shelters open in Jacksonville

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