ST. JOHNS COUNTY, Fla. — The outcome of Tuesday’s special election to decide former Congressman Mike Waltz’s replacement in Florida’s 6th Congressional District is being closely anticipated across the country.
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Early and mail voting stats suggest we could be in for a much closer race than the one seen just six months ago.
As of mid-day Monday more than 47,000 Republicans had cast a ballot in the race for Florida’s 6th Congressional District.
Meanwhile, more than 38,000 Democrats had voted in the race.
It’s a difference of more than 9,000 votes, representing about a 10-point turnout advantage for the GOP.
“We have a real shot to win this race on Tuesday,” said Ken Martin, Chair of the Democratic National Committee during a stop in St. Augustine Sunday.
The national attention on the race brought Martin to CD 6 to help campaign for Democratic candidate Josh Weil.
“We have to compete everywhere. We have to organize everywhere because I believe when you organize everywhere you can win anywhere including in ruby red districts like this,” said Martin.
Given that Republicans tend to turn out more on Election Day, current numbers suggest Weil has a difficult path to victory over Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Randy Fine despite outraising him by a 9-1 margin.
But Democrats won’t necessarily view a defeat as a total loss.
“Let’s say he wins by 10 or 12 points That’s still an enormous shift,” said UNF political science professor Dr. Michael Binder.
Binder any major gains in the district Republicans won by 33 points in November could help Democrats frame the outcome as a referendum on the Trump Administration.
“It can be telling about where the country is at, particularly with a lot of the pushback on the DOGE and what feels like some indiscriminate slashing of benefits,” says Dr. Miochael Binder, Political Science Professor at the University of North Florida.
And that’s exactly the message St. Johns County voter Carol Holtz told us she cast her ballot to send.
“Because if we don’t then it’s a continuing spiral into something that we have not seen and would not ever have imagined for America,” said Holtz.
Polls open Tuesday at 7 AM and close at 7 PM in St. Johns County.
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