Trump assassination attempt could change approval ratings, local political science expert says

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A local political science expert said the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump could sway some voters.

But the main question: is it enough? The answer to the future could be found in the past.

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Dr. Michael Binder is the director of UNF’s Public Opinion Research Lab and said the voters who could be impacted are those in the middle.

“Is it a huge percentage of the population? No, it is not. But in what was originally supposed to be an exceptionally close race — a couple points here and there can really make a difference,” Binder said.

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He called it the “rally around the flag” effect, and it’s happened before.

In 1980, President Ronald Reagan won with a narrow popular vote margin. His job approval rating in mid-March 1981 was 60%, according to a Gallup Poll. Then a gunman attempted to assassinate Reagan on March 30, 1981. By mid-May that year, his approval rating jumped to 68%, which was the highest in his first term.

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“When you have these external threats either to the country or president of the country, you will tend to see approval ratings go up and sometimes dramatically,” Binder said.

But he added that unlike in the ’80′s, most voters in present day are already locked in and fed information they want to hear through many various outlets.

“It’s hard to cross that line and say ‘Oh yeah that other person who I’ve heard all these terrible things about is actually a decent person,’” Binder said.

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