Tracking the Tropics: Tropical disturbance expected to become ‘Helene,’ targeting Florida later this week

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine There is a growing threat for a significant hurricane to strike Florida on Thursday, with some impacts to our local area.

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — A tropical disturbance in the Caribbean is forecast to strengthen over the next few days, likely becoming Tropical Storm Helene. The National Hurricane Center has issued Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches for parts of Mexico and Cuba, with the system expected to impact Florida later this week.

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Current Situation

As of the 11:00 AM advisory, the disturbance was located 130 miles south-southwest of Grand Cayman and 350 miles southeast of Cuba’s western tip, moving north at 6 mph with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph. The system is expected to continue strengthening, potentially becoming a hurricane by midweek as it moves toward Florida.

Action News Jax recommends that anyone with travel plans to - or who lives along - the Gulf Coast & west coast of Florida needs to pay attention to the latest forecast & would be wise now to begin preparations for a tropical cyclone.

Watches and Warnings:

  • Hurricane Watch: Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico, and Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico, and for the Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

Forecast Track:

The system is expected to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and enter the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Its forecast track shows the potential for significant impacts to Florida by Thursday.

Hazards:

  • Rainfall: The system is expected to bring heavy rain to western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula, with rainfall totals ranging from 4 to 12 inches in some areas. Rainfall could spread to the U.S. Southeast by Wednesday, increasing the risk of flooding.
  • Storm Surge: Water levels could rise by 2 to 4 feet in coastal areas of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.
  • Wind: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected as soon as Tuesday.

Timeline:

  • Thursday: Impacts to Florida likely begin, including rain and gusty winds.
  • Friday: The system is expected to move away from the area.

Residents in the potential impact zones are urged to monitor local updates and prepare accordingly as the storm approaches.

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