GOP optimistic voter registration trends flip Duval red, Democrats say county still competitive

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans in Duval County by just over 11,000.

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The stats represent a marked shift compared to just one year ago when Mayor Donna Deegan won her race.

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At that time Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 28,000.

Duval, which is often seen as a bellwether county, is closely watched even at the national level, but the latest voter registration numbers have Republicans optimistic looking ahead to November and beyond.

Closing the gap by 17,000 voters in roughly a year’s time, Duval Republicans believe they’re on the verge of flipping the script on voter registration in the county for the first time in modern history.

Considering Mayor Deegan won her election by about 9,000 votes, Duval GOP Chair Dean Black argued the latest numbers suggest the tides have turned.

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“And it’s a longer story than that. Remember Andrew Gillum won Duval County back in 2018 and Democrats had a lead of nearly 42,000 and today their lead is only 11,000 and dropping every single day,” said Black.

While the Florida Democratic Party committed to fielding candidates in every state house and senate race this year, Black noted one county-wide and two regional races in Duval - the clerk of courts, public defender and state attorney - all went uncontested for Republicans.

“I think what you saw is Democrats throwing in the towel and waiving the white flag,” said Black.

But Daniel Henry, Chair of the Duval County Democratic Party, argued it’s not that Republicans are making gains, rather, they just aren’t losing voters as fast.

“We’ve seen a continued effort not only by the state legislature, but rules that are passed down by the Division of Elections to curl down the number of registered voters and that’s an effect of that,” said Henry.

READ: Duval County sends out sample ballots for Presidential Preference Primary Election

Duval Elections Supervisor Jerry Holland backed up that claim.

He noted Democrats have been disproportionately impacted by the efforts to clean the voter rolls.

“And in doing so, yes, it was a two to one Democrats to Republicans losing voters,” said Holland.

Henry argued Duval remains competitive and pointed to recent election results as proof.

“When you look at the mayor’s race, the property appraiser’s race, a number of city council members that were able to get elected. I think we’re very proud of the record we’ve been able to achieve,” said Henry.

There’s only one group of voters seeing net gains in total registration numbers.

That would be no party affiliates.

Holland noted Democrats are also seeing more of their voters drop their affiliation compared to Republicans in Duval.

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