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You Decide 2010: A Year From Potential Sunshine State Shake-Up

@ November 3, 2009 6:07 AM Permalink | Comments (8)

With major elections in Virginia, New York and New Jersey stealing much of the national political spotlight today, Florida voters are now just a year from deciding major races, including who will sit in the Governor's office, every state Cabinet position and the U.S. Senate.

But the race turning the most heads for political pundits is the Senate show-down, pitting Republicans against Republicans.

"I think Crist is vulnerable," Mason-Dixon Polling Director Brad Coker tells WOKV. "I've been saying that for a long time."

Florida Governor Charlie Crist is foregoing a second term in Tallahassee to make a bid for the U.S. Senate. But the moderate Republican is facing a strong challenge from former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio.

"The last poll we did, if you took the likely Republican primary voters who knew both candidates, they were basically tied," Coker says. "Crist alienated the more conservative voters in the Republican Party in two ways. One is the high-profile embrace of Obama's stimulus program...then there's also some backlash of his endorsement of John McCain."

University of North Florida political scientist Matthew Corrigan agrees the most exciting race on the 2010 calendar is the Senate match-up.

"There is some indication that the Tea Party movement, which is involved in the New York Congressional race [Tuesday], also will be setting it's sights on Florida to support Rubio over Crist," Corrigan predicts. "If that momentum can keep up it is going to be a much closer race than Crist had imagined."

Crist's decision to run for the Senate is creating a shuffle in state politics. It leaves open the Governor's seat. The state's Chief Financial Officer and Attorney General are eyeing the Governor's mansion, leaving those positions open, too.

Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum has been on the campaign trail for months, but will face a primary challenge from Central Florida state senator Paula Dockery.

Dockery plans to file her paperwork to enter the race later today.

Alex Sink, the state's CFO, so far stands alone as the Democrats' nominee, and a match-up with McCollum appears too close to call.

"That's going to be a tough race," Corrigan says. "You've got two experienced politicans. You've got two people who can raise some money and have pretty good name recognition. I think it will be a nice test for the climate of the country. McCollum will probably try to tie Sink to the Obama administration. Is that going to work in a state race? It'll be interesting to watch."

Coker says a few early polls for the Florida's governor's race show a single digit edge for McCollum, well within the margin of error.

"There's a long way to go in that one," he said.

Florida has not elected a Democrat Governor since Lawton Chiles in 1994.

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What others are saying

2010 Election
After the 2010 census Florida will probably gain two new congressional seats to tie New York, which will lose two, for the third largest delegation. Georgia will probably gain one to tie Michigan and North Carolina, which will also gain one, to tie Michigan for the 8th largest.
It's very important that Republicans hold the governorship and legislature in both states when these districts are being drawn.
By Peachie @ 11/04/09 03:05:15 PMreport abuse
Alex Sink
Sink will Sink Florida. Absolutely positively NOT Sink !
By ricardo maxwell @ 11/04/09 02:06:03 PMreport abuse
I can't wait
Yeah,I'll vote straight repub/ind next year.Because you can shame a repub,out of office, with just a bounced check record,but a typical dem,can commit murder on video,and not even lose their job.Dems are a malignant cancer that's almost killed us since 1964.
By Reality @ 11/03/09 01:11:32 PMreport abuse
Charlie the Liar Crist
Anyone that has embraced Obama and his porkulus plan has no business running for Senator.
By ricardo maxwell @ 11/03/09 12:20:15 PMreport abuse
About Charlie Crist
Crist cares about one thing, and one thing only...himself and his political career! Im convinced that He will say and do anything to get elected. His campaign ads are a joke! He clearly hasn't performed like he is advertising. He is a R-I-N-O by all indications. I'm sick and tired of Politians who go to Washington and do what THEY think best for our Country, while distancing and even ignoring the voice of the people that put them there. Crist is no different. He better start looking for a new job now, because TRUE conservativism is on the rise and the PEOPLES VOICES WILL BE HEARD!
By Orange Park Resident @ 11/03/09 12:13:22 PMreport abuse
Declaration of Independence
Declaration of Independence

(Adopted by Congress on July 4, 1776)

The Unanimous Declaration
of the Thirteen United States of America

When, in the course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bonds which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the laws of nature and of nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable rights, that among these are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed. That whenever any form of government becomes destructive to these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.
By kscotts @ 11/03/09 11:55:41 AMreport abuse
I fully agree with you! Anyone who follows politics is polarly charged. One either agrees or disagrees with the political policies that have taken place within the last few years, fears or accepts the policies that are trying to be implemented... some of the people have watched what our politicians have said and pledged to do, observed if they have executed on those committments,and will use their vote to place that person in office that they feel will do both and listen to their constuents. No national party is innocent. Plead with everyone to become educated on the candidate's position and VOTE!
By Backlash @ 11/03/09 09:26:41 AMreport abuse
Politics
The landscape of politics is forever changed. There are now GOP candidates, DNC candidates, and "the people's" candidates. We are no longer being dictated to by the status quo. We are cleaning house. And the GOP leadership better look over their shoulders as well. We're tired of politics as usual and "leaders" who do not listen to the people.
By Northside Mom @ 11/03/09 07:12:16 AMreport abuse