Jamie Dupree

The Democratic Delegate Math, Version 2.1

Jamie Dupree

@ February 12, 2008 10:17 AM Permalink | Comments (0)

168 delegates are at stake for the Democrats again today, with the usual proportional formula for handing out delegates, based on who wins Congressional districts and the statewide vote.

Realistically, it's hard to see Barack Obama losing the Washington, D.C. primary with the overwhelming black vote there. D.C. has 15 delegates, which will be allocated based on voting in the city's 8 wards and overall.

Hillary actually might have a chance to pick off a couple delegates because of Ward 3 in the upper Northwest part of the city, which might offer her some white votes, though there are a lot of limousine liberals there as well that could go for Obama.

Maryland will be interesting to watch because the Democratic Party hierarchy is with Clinton, but the large black population of Baltimore and Prince George's County (to the NE of Washington) would seem to offer Obama major support.

Again, Clinton could cut down on Obama's delegate lead in Maryland by winning some of the Congressional districts that are outside of Baltimore and the DC suburbs, specifically Southern Maryland, the Maryland Panhandle and areas along the Pennsylvania border. We'll see.

In the end, Perception may be more important than Delegates tonight. Three more wins for Obama - even if Clin