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Jamie Dupree

Obama and McCain Sweep Beltway Primaries

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Jamie Dupree
@ February 12, 2008 10:30 PM
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It was a big night for both Barack Obama and John McCain as they swept the three primaries in Maryland, Virginia and Washington, D.C.

For Obama, the results extended his winning streak to eight straight contests, as he finally wakes up this morning in the lead in delegates in the Democratic race for President, no matter which news organization is totaling up the delegate count.

While his lead in delegates is not large, the important part right now is the perception of the battle between Obama and Clinton. Eight wins in a row equals Momentum. Obama can add to that with wins next week in Hawaii and Wisconsin.

Then we move on to March 4th, with Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. In essence, this becomes Hillary Clinton's Firewall or Hillary Clinton's Last Stand.

The next three weeks will not be easy ones for the Clinton camp. First, they will have to fend off a lot of public and private pressure from fellow Democrats about whether it's time to fold the tent and get in line behind Obama.

The press coverage will have a negative tilt to it for Clinton, with headlines about her campaign struggling and more - none of it the kind of press you want to have right now.

Hillary backers will rightly point to the delegate scoreboard and say that there is no reason for them to be talking about losing the race in just a few weeks time.

For example, the Associated Press delegate count has Obama with 1,210 and Clinton at 1,188. Neither of them is close to the 2,025 needed to win the Democratic nomination.

But in terms of momentum, in terms of perception, Hillary Clinton is on the short end of the stick right now, and it could get even tougher if high profile Democrats decide to start endorsing Obama, even before March 4th.

Perception is the key right now. And the perception is that Obama has broken through with the voters, stringing together eight straight wins. If he wins in Ohio and Texas, then three weeks from today, he will be the "inevitable" nominee.

McCain Looks Past Huckabee To Obama In November

I was not surprised by the outcome of the GOP races on Tuesday. Mike Huckabee was able to make Virginia into a contest, but in the end, John McCain had too much support from the DC suburbs south to Richmond and then east to Hampton Roads.

In Little Rock, Arkansas, Huckabee put up a brave face and talked about continuing the fight for the GOP nomination. But let's face it, that gets harder and harder to sell every day now.

McCain's primary night remarks had little to say about Huckabee, and sounded more like an effort to introduce himself to voters watching that night on TV and listening on radio.

McCain also went out of his way to tweak Barack Obama over his theme of hope. I expect to hear a lot more of that - the argument being that Obama is big on rhetoric, but little on detail or experience.

McCain also emphasized Republican unity for November, arguing that Democrats want to do a littany of things that GOP voters would find repugnant, like raising taxes, making government bigger and more.

This morning, McCain goes to Capitol Hill to rally with GOP lawmakers, more of whom are ready to get on the McCain Bandwagon. Look for McCain to work closely with members of the House especially, as they will attack Democrats over pork barrel spending.

Mike Huckabee may be ready to continue the fight, but party officials know which way the wind is blowing.

The Campaign Schedule Tells A Story Again

Next week's contests on the Democratic side are caucuses in Hawaii (please send me there boss) and a primary in Wisconsin.

You sure can't tell that by looking at the Hillary Clinton schedule in coming days.

She didn't stick around in the Washington, D.C. area on Tuesday night, instead holding a rally in El Paso, Texas, one of the four states that votes on March 4th.

Wednesday she spends the whole day in Texas. Thursday and Friday she campaigns in Ohio, the other big state on March 4.

After that, she finally goes to Wisconsin for the final few days of that campaign. Maybe by then, some of her advisers will simply urge her to stay in Ohio and Texas, or make a trip to Rhode Island and Vermont instead, the other states on March 4th.

Hillary Clinton now has less than three weeks to turn things around. If she gets blown out in Texas and Ohio, this race will be over. A split might even be a win for Obama, depending on the delegate math and the New England states.

My wife suggested to me a simple explanation for why the bottom seems to have suddenly dropped out from under the Clinton Camp. Yes, some of it does go to Barack Obama and the fact that he is an appealing candidate.

But my wife says she thinks this is more Clinton Fatigue than anything else. Yes, people remember Hillary and they remember good things from Bill's time in office as President. But they also remember a lot of the controversy and scandal that enveloped the Clintons during their time in office.

Maybe that's why voters have suddenly soured on the New York Senator.

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