Cole Pepper

Jags Win Saves Season

@ October 13, 2008 6:20 AM Permalink | Comments (2) | TrackBacks (0)

Before Sunday's game in Denver, I called the contest the "fulcrum game" of 2008 for the Jaguars.

That's because I believed (still do), that the Jaguars could not make the playoffs without a win over Denver. Time will tell if I was right, but for the time being, the Jaguars saved the season with the 24-17 win in the Rocky Mountains.

Look at it this way: with a loss, the Jaguars would have been 2-4, and even if (as expected) they sweep their next three games against Cleveland, Cincinnati and Detroit, they would be only 5-4 after the softest stretch of their schedule.

Instead, now they can potentially be 6-3, which is going to look a lot better considering the Colts resurgence.

Here's how I see the AFC right now. Barring injuries, the Bills, Steelers and Titans are clear favorites in their divisions. Either Denver or San Diego is going to win the AFC West--more on that later. That leaves the Jaguars, Colts, Jets, Patriots, and maybe the Ravens and Chargers to contend for the two wild card playoff spots.

Here's a table of the remaining games for the AFC contenders.

Week	Colts (3-2)	Patriots (3-2)	Jets (3-2)	Ravens (2-3)	Chargers (3-3)
7	@ GB	vs. DEN	@ OAK	@ MIA	@ BUF
8	@ TEN	vs. STL	vs. KC	vs. OAK	@ NO
9	vs. NE	@ IND	@ BUF	@ CLE	BYE
10	@ PIT	vs. BUF	vs. STL	@ HOU	vs. KC
11	vs. HOU	vs. NYJ	@ NE	@ NYG	@ PIT
12	@ SD	@ MIA	@ TEN	vs. PHI	vs. IND
13	@ CLE	vs. PIT	vs. DEN	@ CIN	@ ATL
14	vs. CIN	@ SEA	@ SF	vs. WAS	vs. OAK
15	vs. DET	@ OAK	vs. BUF	vs. PIT	@ KC
16	@ JAX	vs. ARZ	@ SEA	@ DAL	@ TB
17	vs. TEN	@ BUF	vs. MIA	vs. JAX	vs. DEN
Projected	10-6	9-7	9-7	6-10	11-5

note: wins in bold

Of course, there is no way that all of these predictions are going to be correct, but it looks like it could take 11 wins to get into the wildcard. You'll note the highlighted game in week 12 between the Colts and Chargers. One of those teams will win and so I'm projecting the Chargers to finish at 11-5 and the Colts at 10-6.

Now, here's the qualifier...when you look at the NFL over a long stretch, you can pretty much project one upset every two weeks. So that means that it may only take 10 wins and a tie-breaker to make it into the playoffs. If the Chargers were to finish at 11-5, that might be enough to win the AFC West. I'm projecting Denver as a 10-6 finish now.

What does this all mean for the Jaguars? Well, if they sweep the Browns, Bengals and Lions, they would be 6-3 and that would mean that they would need to finish at least 4-3 in their last seven games: vs. Tennessee, vs. Minnesota, at Houston, at Chicago, vs. Green Bay, vs. Indianapolis and at Baltimore.

Wanna play Kreskin? Let's call the Tennessee game a loss and the Vikings and Texans games wins. The Jaguars would enter the final four games needing at least two wins, maybe three. Can it be done? Sure. But there isn't a lot of margin for error.

This just goes to show that the win in Denver saved the season...at least for now.

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What others are saying

David Gerrard
Get rid of David? He doesn't run the ball? Is the writer blind and has missed all the times that David gave up his body? I'm shocked.
By Sandy S @ 10/13/08 03:48:59 PMreport abuse
what jaguars must do
GET RID OF DAVID GERRARD, A GREAT QUARTERBACK NOT ONLY THROWS THE DAMN BALL, BUT RUNS IT WHEN NECESSARY. ALAS MATT RYAN FALCONS QUARTERBACK WHO IS A ROOKIE BUT PLAYS THE GAME LIKE HE'S BEEN DOING IT FOR YEARS; HE RUNS THE BALL WHEN NECESSARY AND NOTICES HIS MISTAKES AND CORRECTS THEM.
By Ed Burnsed @ 10/13/08 02:03:04 PMreport abuse